Arctic sea ice: Uncertainty what will happened in the future
The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is an important climate indikator, in particular the summer ice. The September sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased about 40% since 1979 based on reliable US satellite data, see figure below which show the average monthly SIE for; minimum, September, the maximum, March and the annual SIE. The reason for the decrease of the SIE is primarily the increase of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere which in September 1979 was 333 parts per million (ppm) to 422 ppm in 2024, observed from Mauna Loa, Hawaii. This increase has also caused a significant warmer Arctic region than the average global warming. I have published in 2023 that the correlation between the SIE and the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in the period 1979-2022 for September showed that 80% of the decrease of SIE could be explained by the increase of the CO2 in the atmosphere, the remaining by natural variability.
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